运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测安徽省肺结核发病趋势

Application of grey system model GM(1,1) in prevention of incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Anhui Province

目的建立肺结核灰色预测模型GM（1,1）,应用于安徽省肺结核发病趋势的预测。方法根据公共卫生科学数据中心中2005~2012年安徽省肺结核发病报告资料建立肺结核发病率灰色预测模型GM（1,1）,同时采用该模型对安徽省2013~2015年的肺结核发病率进行预测分析。结果通过灰色预测模型GM（1,1）而建立一个Y（t）=-1433.7369e-0.0654（t-1）＋1531.5997预测模型,利用建立的模型预测安徽省2013~2015年安徽省肺结核发病率分别为57.4372/10万、53.7996/10万和50.3923/10万。结论通过实践应用证实,GM（1,1）模型预测安徽省肺结核发病率符合目前发展趋势,结果具有较高的参考应用价值。

Objective To establish grey system GM（ 1,1） model of pulmonary tuberculosis, to apply on prevention of incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Anhui Province. Methods Established grey system GM（ 1,1） model of the morbidity of pulmonary tuberculosis according to the morbidity incidence reporting data of public health science data center from 2005 to 2012 in Anhui Province, at the same time to predictively analyze the morbidity of pulmonary tuberculosis through the model from 2013 to 2015 in Anhui Province. Results Through the grey system GM（ 1,1） model to establish prediction model of Y（t）=-1433.7369e-0.0654（t-1）＋1531.5997 which had predicted that the morbidity of pulmonary tuberculosis were 57.4372 per 0.1 million, 53.7996 per 0.1 million, and 50.3923 per 0.1 million from 2013 to 2015 in Anhui Province. Conclusion Practical application has proved that, grey system GM （1,1） model on prevention of incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Anhui Province is accord with currently development, is worthy of higher referenced application value.