利率变动与公司债务期限结构的实证研究——基于制造业的经验分析

Empirical Research on Interest Rate Variation and Debt Maturity Structure of Corporations: An Empirical Study based on Manufacturing Industry

利率是连接宏观经济环境与微观企业财务决策的重要桥梁,利率作为货币资金的价格直接关系到企业的投资项目评估及债务清偿策略。长、短期债务的主要差别在于利率不同,短期债务的利率通常比长期债务低,但企业也不会因为短期债务的利率低而盲目地借入短期债务,而是在考察内、外部影响因素的基础之上再做出审慎的选择。为此本文选择一年期贷款基准利率作为研究的主变量,以2005年至2013年的制造业上市公司为样本,运用固定效应及随机效应线性回归模型研究利率与债务期限结构之间的关系,并考察这一影响在不同产权性质的公司中是否存在差异。研究发现,利率变动对企业债务期限结构决策具有显著负向影响,并且以上结论不因企业性质的改变而有所变化。

The interest rate is an important bridge between the macroeconomic environment and financial decisions of firms. The interest rate as the price of capital is directly related to the evaluation of enterprise investment project and strategy of debt settlement. The main difference between the long and short - term debt is that short- term debt interest rate is usually lower than long -term debt rate, enterprises is not blindly borrow short - term debt because of rates low, but make prudent choice based on the external and internal factors. This paper chooses the one - year lending rate as the main variables and selects A - share listed Companies between 2007 and 2013 in manufacturing industry and study the relation between debt maturity structure and interest rates using the linear fixed effect and random effect regression models,and study whether there is difference in the different property nature of companies. We find that interest rates and inflations are negatively correlated with debt maturity structure. At the same time, the relation exists in the enterprises no matter who own them.