“新常态”下短期我国人民币贬值原因探究及预测

Causation and forecast about short-term devaluation of CNY under the " New Normal"

回顾整个2014年,我国人民币兑美元汇率已累计下跌达2.42%。人民币汇率问题的决定已不仅仅是由单一因素决定,而是受政治、经济利益博弈的均衡作用。受我国经济"三期叠加"及我国经济发展新常态化的影响,经济增速有所回落。同时人民币与美元之间的存款利率逐渐收窄,美国经济复苏美元强势等因素影响,人民币小幅贬值预期趋强。在现代金融市场,预期对我国人民币汇率贬值起着决定性作用。

the review of the 2014 , China＇s RMB exchange rate against the dollar has fallen to 2.42%. The issue of RMB exchange rate decision is not only determined by a single factor,but by political,eco- nomic balance of the interests of the game. By our country＇s＂three Overlay＂and the impact of Chinffs eco- nomic development and the new norm, economic growth has declined. At the same time between RMB and US dollar deposit rates gradually narrowed, USAeconomic recovery strong dollar and other factors, the RMB？ devaluation is expected to slightlyfirmer. The authors from different angles to analyze the reason of RMB devaluation, and thatin the modern financial market,is expected to China＇s devaluation of the RMB exchange rate plays a decisive role. At the same time,also hope to provide a useful perspective for thereform of the RMB exchange rate market.