基于灰色关联和偏最小二乘法的中国珠宝首饰消费及贸易影响分析

Effects of international investment and medical insurance on the consumption and trade of jewelry in China based on grey correlation and partial least squares

基于灰色关联分析方法,利用2000—2013年中国珠宝首饰的国内消费和进出口数据进行了实证分析,其结果表明:城镇固定资产投资和实际利用外资对中国珠宝首饰的消费及贸易呈现最为显著的影响;城镇职工医疗保险规模及参加新型农村合作医疗比率与中国珠宝首饰消费及贸易额的变动呈现正向显著的影响。基于偏最小二乘法进行了回归和预测,其结果表明:国际投资对中国珠宝首饰贸易呈现显著的替代效应;城镇职工医疗保险规模的扩大对中国珠宝首饰的进出口额产生抑制效应。中国珠宝首饰消费市场发展比较缓慢,出口外贸珠宝行业已处于升级阶段,贸易规模逐步扩大。

This paper employs grey correlation analysis by using oata of lnternatmnai traoe anu taomestlc Collsumption of jewelry industry from 2000 to 2013. The empirical analysis and results come as follow. First, it has proved that urban fixed-asset investment and the actual use of foreign investment have been significantly linked with the consump- tion and trade of jewelry. Secondly, the size of medical insurance for urban employees and the coverage rate of NRCMS （ New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme） have the positive shock for both consumption and trade of jewelry. But analysis of the jewelry consumption and trade by using partial least squares regression method reveals that international investment has the great substitution effect on jewelry＇s trade. Expansion of urban employees medical insurance has inhibited jewelry trade. The whole jewelry stably, which indicates its trade business market in China develops slowly, and the scale of its trade is growing has been in the stage of upgrading largerstably, which indicates its trade business has been in the stage of upgrading.