“三架马车”绩效评估与中国经济需求结构失衡

Performance Evaluation of Final Demands and Imbalance of Its Structure

本文结合投入产出占用模型和数据包络方法(DEA),测评"三驾马车"驱动经济增长的绩效,解释中国经济最终需求结构失衡现象,为中等收入阶段中国增长动力转换提供新思路。主要结论包括:中国经济对于消费的依存度在持续下降,而对于投资和出口的依存度有所上升;对于生产要素和非期望产出而言,消费需求所占用的资本和劳动力资源数量更多一些,投资和出口需求消耗的能源以及排放的CO2更多一些;单从经济增长速度和TFP指标分析,消费在"三驾马车"中都位于末位,但若考虑TFP对于经济增长贡献度,消费驱动绩效是最优的。最后,文章为中等收入阶段中国经济动力转换提供政策建议。

It will provide new idea for transformation of economic growth engines after evaluating the performance of final demands precisely and finding out the key factors behind coexistence between the imbalance structure of final demands and extensive growth mode. This paper combined input-output-occupancy model and data envelope analysis method to evaluate the performance of three final demands. Results showed that ： （ 1 ） Chinese economies dependence on consumption continued to decline, while its dependence on investment and export has increased; （2） The demand of consumption occupied more capital and labor resources while the demands of investment and export occupied more energy and produced more pollution emissions. （3） The demand of consumption is the latest of Troika when the GDP＇ s growth rates and TFP have been considered, but it ranked the first while considering the contribution of TFP to the economic growth. Finally, this article provided relative suggestions for transformation of Chinese economic in middle income stage.