基于BEER模型的人民币均衡汇率研究

An Empirical Analysis of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate based on BEER Model

自2005年7月我国汇率改革后,人民币持续升值。2014年2月到3月中旬,人民币兑美元汇率下跌创下5年内最大跌幅2.6%,引发国际上各方舆论。在当前形势下,科学合理地评估人民币均衡汇率水平,具有重要的现实意义。在分析总结均衡汇率理论的基础上,选择适合我国国情的行为均衡汇率理论(BEER),采用1994—2014年的月度数据,通过协整检验建立了人民币均衡汇率模型和误差修正模型,测算出人民币实际有效汇率总失调程度,结果表明不存在大幅高估或低估。

After the China＇ s exchange rate regime reform in July 2005, the RMB appreciated continually. From February to mid-March 2014, the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. Dollar dramatically fell to 2.6% that was the largest decline in past five years. This phenomenon caused fierce debate in the financial world. In the current situation, through assessing of the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB scientifically and rationally, not only can provide suggestions of exchange rate regime reform for the central banks and regulatory authorities, but also can benefit for the development of China＇s foreign trade. It also enhances international trust and promotes global economic recovery, which has important practical significance. This paper summarizes the equilibrium exchange rate theories and selects BEER model which is the most suitable for China. With using the monthly data of 1994 to 2013, and co-integration test, this paper builds RMB equilibrium exchange rate model, measures out the RMB current and long-term equilibrium exchange rate. Furthermore, it depicts exchange rate misalignment