人口总量与结构变化影响植被覆盖的实证研究

Impacts of population changes on vegetation cover:mechanism analysis and empirical research

人口变化对我国自然环境所产生的影响越来越大,其中,植被作为陆地生态系统的主要组成部分,为人类社会经济活动提供最重要的资源,其受到的影响尤其显著。基于我国31个省市的人口和植被归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据进行实证分析,结果表明,我国人口总量增长对植被覆盖变化产生了较大的负面影响,其中,工业就业人口的增长加剧了这种影响,而人口城镇化发展、年龄结构和文化素质的改善则相对减缓了这种影响。相应地,我国需要采取的措施包括加快人口城镇化、建立绿化保障制度、推广绿化新技术、优化人口就业结构、培育公民绿化环保意识等。

Human activities have a large impact on vegetation cover change, but the population factors that cause human activities change are still lack of attention in the study of population and vegetation cover at present. In this paper, we took 31 provinces in China as the interested areas to test the relationship between population factors （including population quantity, quality, urbanization, age structure and employment structure） and vegetation cover change, based on the NDVI data. The results showed that the total population growth had a great negative impact on vegetation cover change in China. The industrial employment population growth intensified this impact, while the improvements of population urbanization, quality and age structure reduced it. Accordingly, some measures must be taken to improve the vegetation cover in China, including speeding up the population urbanization, establishing the green security system, promoting new green technologies, optimizing the employment structure, fostering citizens＇ greening awareness, and so on.