应用灰色模型GM(1,1)对某乡镇感染性腹泻发病趋势预测研究

Application of GM( 1,1) on prediction of infectious diarrhea incidence trend in a town

目的预测北京市房山区佛子庄镇感染性腹泻发病情况,为进一步制定防治对策提供依据。方法应用GM(1,1)模型对该地区2005-2014年感染性腹泻发病率进行拟合,判断模型的精度。如模型拟合较好,对该乡镇2015年、2016年数据进行外推,分析其变化趋势。结果该乡镇2005-2014年感染性腹泻发病率,呈整体上升趋势。通过拟合,求得预测模型Yt=236.0354 e-0.05t-1 269.304 9,模型精度好,2015年、2016年外推数据为483.347 3/10万,540.2 922/10万。结论 GM(1,1)模型对佛子庄乡镇2005-2014年发病率拟合数据好,预测2015年、2016年感染性腹泻发病率呈上升趋势。

Objective To predict the incidence trend of Infectious diarrhea in Fozizhuang of Faugshan district and provide scientific evidence for the development of prevention and control measures. Methods Data fitting based on GM （ 1,1 ） model was applieated on incidence of infectious diarrhea from 2005 to 2014 to assess the accuracy of model. The extrapolative prediction of Infectious diarrhea in 2015 and 2016 were conducted with the established model andthe changing trend was analyzed. Results The incidence of infectious diarrhea had generally risen from 2005 to 2014 in the town. The prediction model was acquired as Yt =236. 035 4 e^-0.05t - 1 269. 304 9, and the model fitting precision was eligible. The incidences of 2015 and 2016 were predicted to be 483.3 473/10^5 ,540.2 922/10^5. Conclusion GM （ 1,1 ） model was fitted well, the incidence of infectious diarrhea in Fozizhuang could be predicted to keep on rising.