基于动态面板门限模型的环境规制、技术进步与工业废气排放研究

Research on Environmental Regulation,Technological Progress and Industrial Emissions Based on Dynamic Panel Threshold Model

工业废气是大气污染和环境污染的重要组成部分,是造成我国大部分地区出现雾霾天气的主要原因之一。因此,本文采用2002-2011年中部六省的数据,通过构建动态面板门限模型,分析了环境规制和技术进步水平对工业废气排放的影响。实证分析结果表明,环境规制、技术进步与工业废气排放量之间存在着一定的面板门限效应。在2007年之前,工业的技术进步与工业废气的排放呈现正相关关系但不显著,而环境规制对工业废气排放的抑制作用显著;但2007年之后,工业技术进步对工业废气排放的抑制作用显著,而环境规制对工业废气排放的抑制程度较弱,这与我国节能减排政策及工业技术进步的偏向性有关。

Industrial waste gas has been the important part of air pollution and environmental pollution. It was one of the major reasons for haze weather in most parts of China. Considering this condition, this paper used the correlated data of the middle area during 2002 - 2011 to analyze the impact that the environmental regulation and technical progress make on industrial waste gas emission by constructing a dynamic panel threshold model. The empirical study showed that there was a panel threshold effect among environmental regulation, technological progress and industrial emissions. Before 2007, the relationship between technological progress and industrial waste gas emissions was positive correlated but not significant, and the inhibitory effect of environmental regulation on the industrial waste gas emission was significant; however after 2007, because of the policies of energy saving, emission reduction in China and the industry technological progress, the industrial technology progress played a more significant role than the environmental regulation in curbing the industrial emissions.