地区能源利用、碳排放与经济增长——基于脱钩理论的实证分析

Regional Energy Consumption,Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Decoupling Theory

随着经济的快速发展,能源稀缺、环境恶化已然成为我国经济健康平稳发展的两大桎梏。如何在不损害经济增长速度及质量的前提下实现经济增长尤其是区域经济与能源消耗、碳排放间的脱钩,已然成为了目前学界关注的热点问题。文章在核算1995-2012年我国29省市8种能源的碳排放总量的基础上,利用脱钩模型对29省市经济增长与能源利用、碳排放之间的脱钩程度进行了度量。结果显示：（1）除北京外,我国其它地区经济增长与能源消费、碳排放之间未呈现明显的脱钩关系,这意味着尽管能源消耗强度、碳排放强度不断下降,但我国经济对能源消耗及碳排放依然具有路径依赖;（2）“十一五”以来经济增长与能源、碳排放之间的关联性相对较弱,这得益于这一时期我国将节能和减排作为约束性指标并明确提出节能减排任务;（3）碳排放与能源消耗的脱钩指数呈强的关联性,这意味着以煤为主的能源结构可能是能源、碳排放与经济增长未脱钩的重要因素,减排必先从节能入手;（4）各省市碳排放和能源消耗脱钩指数呈明显的区域差异性,因此应制定“共同但有区别”的节能减排政策以构建区域低碳经济均衡发展模式。

Addition to the carbon emissions accounting factor and the reference coefficient of the energy converted to standard coal, the paper calculated the carbon emissions in 29 provinces and cities from 1995 to 2012. This paper builds an analysis model to discuss the decoupling relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth. The results showed： （ 1 ） in addition to Beijing, there is non-deeoupling in other regions in China, which means that China＇s economy stin depends on carbon emissions and energy consumption despite the intensity of carbon emissions, energy consumption decreased continuously; （2） since the 11th Five- Year Plan, the relevance between economic growth and carbon emissions, energy consumption is weak, which benefit a lot from the policy of energy saving and emission reduction at the same time in China; （3） the decoupling index of carbon emission and energy consumption is strong relevance, which means that the coal dominated energy structure may be an important factor of non- decoupling, and carbon emission reduction must be save energy early; （4） the decouphng index of energy consumption and carbon emissions in various provinces showed significant regional differences, therefore, we should formulate the policy of ＂Common But Differentiated Responsibilities＂ of emission reduction and energy saving, so as to build a balanced regional development mode of low carbon economy.