基于Monte Carlo法的应力-强度总体干涉模型建立

Stress-strength population interference model based on Monte Carlo method

通过Monte Carlo法模拟抽样出应力和强度的大量样本值,得到建立应力-强度样本干涉模型的数据原型。运用概率纸检验数据分布,直观地确定了应力或强度模拟样本值分布类型。应用极大似然估计确定应力和强度总体分布参数,从而最终得到应力-强度总体干涉数据模型。以蜗轮结构可靠性设计模拟出总体干涉模型,再计算出可靠度为0.999 6,为可靠性数据缺乏时进行机械零件可靠性设计提供了一种思路,具有一定的参考价值。

This paper provided a method of establishing stress-strength interference model in the basis of Monte Carlo sampling method. The distribution of stress-strength sampling can be visually obtained by inspecting data on probability paper. Using maximum likelihood estimation to inferencing the population parameters distribution of stress and strength, so as to obtain the Stress-Strength Interference Model of the data. Taking structure reliability design of worm wheel as an application, the realibility as 0.9996 can be conducted according to the interference model Simulation. Therefore,it is proved that the proposed method is simple and practicable to provide a new idea of mechanical parts reliability design in case of lacking history data.