基于灰色GM（1，1）模型的低渗气藏递减规律与气田产量弥补方法研究

Decline law of production from low permeability gas reservoirs and output offset method based on the gray GM（1,1） model

低渗气藏单井产量容易递减，由于其供气面积有限，现场往往采取打补充气井来弥补递减，气田整体产量是可以保持稳产的。安岳气田威东区块已进入产量递减期，研究威东区块产量递减规律对预测产气量和建立气田产量弥补方法意义重大。一般情况下采用Arps递减模型来分析递减类型并建立相应的产量弥补预测方法．但用Arps递减模型难以一次性正确判断递减类型，计算过程复杂，在计算双曲递减方程时，由于各算法的出发点和数学处理方式不同．可能会得到不同的结果，为此引入灰色GM（1，1）模型建立产量递减及低渗气田产量弥补预测方法，消除Arps方法的多解性并提高预测精度。研究表明，灰色GM（1，1）模型方法简单实用、精度高、结果可靠，可以进行低渗气藏产量递减规律与气田产量弥补方法研究。

Permeability gas reservoir well production easily decline, because of its limited supply area, on-site wells often take supplements to make up for diminishing fight. Thus the overall gas production can be maintained stable production. Wei East Block Anyue field has entered production de- cline period, research area Weidong Block Production Decline for forecasting gas production and gas production to make up for the establishment of the method is significant. Model using Arps decline in general to analyze and establish the appropriate type of diminishing yields to compensate fore- casting methods, hut with the right Arps decline model is difficult to judge diminishing disposable type, the calculation process is complex. In calcu- lating the hyperbolic decline equation, due to the different starting points of the algorithms and mathematical approach, may get different results. To this end, we introduce the gray GM （1,1） model production decline and low permeability gas production to make up for forecasting methods, Arps method of eliminating multiple solutions and improve the prediction accuracy. Studies show： Grey GM （1,1） model is simple and practical, high preci- sion, reliable, and can be low permeability gas reservoirs and gas production in the law of diminishing yields to compensate Method.