基于系统动力学的国家低碳发展战略情景仿真分析

The Analysis and Simulation of National Strategy on Low Carbon Energy Development Based on System Dynamics

以中国低碳能源发展战略的"十二五"方针为建模目标,建立能源消耗视角下低碳经济发展系统模型并进行情景仿真分析。结果发现,按照中国现阶段的发展模式,CO2排放量将随着经济发展进一步增加,单位GDP的CO2排放强度比呈现缓慢下降的趋势,其到2020年下降33.4%,难以达到战略要求;由于经济发展需要,石化能源的消耗量日趋上升,占总能源消耗结构的比例无法降到规划中的预期目标,同时,石化能源需求压力也导致进口量不断增加。因此,如不转变现有发展模式无法达到中国"十二五"方针政策的要求。

This paper establishes a low carbon economy development system model under the perspective of energy consumption and simulates the model.Results show that,CO2 emission will increase with the economic development and at the same time the radio of GDP and CO2 emission intensity will decrease about 33.4%in 2020 will have the trend of slow down.With the need of economy,the consumption petrochemical energy will increase and lead to a high pressure to satisfy the goal of energy consumption structure.Meanwhile,the requirement of petrochemical energy will have further stress on import energy.Thus our country’s current development model is unable to meet the requirements of the national strategy and policy.