西北民族地区新型城镇化影响因素的空间计量分析

The Spatial Econometric Analysis of Influential Factors to New Urbanization in Northwest Ethnic Regions of China

本文采用固定效应的SDM对西北民族地区29个市州新型城镇化的影响因素进行研究,结果表明:经济发展水平和产业结构非农化不仅能够促进一个市州各种要素的集聚,同时还能吸引相邻市州要素向本市州集聚;基础设施投入和社会保障水平的提高可以促进一个市州新型城镇化水平的提高,但是对相邻市州的影响不显著;生态环境建设对西北民族地区各市州新型城镇化的影响不显著。西北民族地区各市州在制订新型城镇化发展战略时,不仅要考虑本市州的发展,更要考虑对相邻市州的影响,为了避免各市州间的恶性竞争,应建立超越行政区划的新型城镇化组织机构。

Adopting the SDM system with fixed effect, this paper analyzes the influential factors on new-urbaniza- tion by taking 29 states in northwest ethnic regions as examples. The results show that the economic development level and non-agricultural industry structure can not only promote the cluster of state＇ s own elements, but also at- tract the neighboring states＇ elements to gather towards it as well. In addition, the increase on infrastructure in- vestment and the perfection of social security system have a positive effect on the improvement of the state＇s new-urbanization, while the effect towards the neighboring states is not so obvious, neither does eco-environment construction to northwest ethnic regions＇ new-urbanization. Therefore, on making the strategies of new-urbaniza- tion in northwest ethnic regions, it is significant to take the state＇s own improvement into consideration. Moreover, it is supposed to weigh the influence on the neighboring states. Eventually, the establishment of a new organization system beyond the formal administrative districts system should be put into practice to avoid vicious competition among states.