我国重点矿业经济区环境库兹涅茨曲线研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

Research on Environmental Kuznets Curve of China's Key Mining Economic Zone——Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data

以1995-2011年我国30个重点矿业经济区为研究对象,基于面板数据模型构建我国重点矿业经济区环境库兹涅茨(EKC)模型,实证分析了我国重点矿业经济区EKC存在性、转折点、区域与类型差异性以及所处的阶段效应。研究结果表明:工业废水与烟粉尘排放强度随人均GDP呈"倒N型"EKC曲线,SO2排放强度呈"线性"关系,尽管SO2排放强度逐渐降低,但仍将是未来考察环境污染的主要指标;我国东部与西部区域重点矿业经济区在一定阶段会出现经济发展与环境污染的脱钩,且东部区域更早一点,中部区域未知;现阶段我国重点矿业经济区多数处于规模效应阶段,应加快技术进步,调整产业结构,推进经济转型与可持续发展。

This paper focuses on the research of China＇s 30 key mining economic zones from 1995 to 2011. The measures it has taken include building Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） model for these key mining economic zones based on panel data; analyzing the existence, turning point, the differences of regions and types, and the time period effect with regard to EKC. The results show that industrial wastewater and smoke powder emissions intensity has shaped as an inverted-N curve of EKC with per capita GDP; SO2 emission intensity has a linear relation. This paper points out that although the SO2 emission intensity has gradually reduced, it will still be the main index for the future investigation of environmental pollution. The key mining economic zones in the east and west of China will be faced with the decoupling of economic development and environmental pollution in a certain stage, which will be occurred earlier in the eastern region, and unknown in the central area. Now that most of the key mining economic zones are in the stage of scale effect, so we must speed up technological progress, readjust the industrial structure, and promote economic transition and sustainable development.