中日经济追赶过程中的要素集聚、经济增长与经济泡沫:比较与借鉴

The Agglomeration of Production Factors,Economic Growth and Economic Bubbles in Catching-up Economies in China and Japan: Comparison and Reference

中日追赶型经济的一个基本共同点是通过一系列政策、体制扭曲,实施出口导向型发展战略,从而实现稀缺要素的本国集聚与经济高速增长。然而经济追赶战略下的体制与政策扭曲的实施是有历史条件的,在经济追赶的后期,不仅追赶的历史前提会逐渐瓦解,而且本国要素禀赋结构的升级也会日益与追赶阶段的扭曲性体制与政策发生冲突。由于相应的体制、制度创新具有滞后性,一般最先针对国内外失衡进行调整的往往是汇率与利率等价格变量,这在短期内不但无助于结构调整,反而更可能恶化资源配置并催生严重经济泡沫。日本在追赶阶段结束之后陷入经济泡沫,其教训足资中国借鉴。

The common characteristic in catching- up economies in China and Japan is to implement export - oriented strategy through a set of distortions of system and policies, thus achieve the agglomeration of scarce factors of production and high speed of the economic growth. However, there are some historical preconditions for catching - up strategy. Not only these historical preconditions would gradually disappear hut also the upgrading of factor endowments would conflict with the traditional distorted system and polices in the post process of catching - up phrase. As the lag of innovation of system and institutions, the first adjustment variables on structure imbalance is usually exchange rate and interest rate, which may worsen the resource allocation in the short run and lead to serious the collapse of economic bubbles, which gives China a lot economic bubbles. Japanese economy suffered of references.