基于灰靶理论的电网规划方案评价及灵敏度分析

Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of Power Network Planning Based on Grey Target Theory

为了解决多个电网规划方案的评估问题和了解评估结果的稳定性,将灰靶理论和灵敏度分析方法引入到电网规划方案的评估中。通过设定靶心模式与靶边模式,对灰靶变换式进行了改进,并考虑各评估方案的偏好信息后,借助于线性规划和二次规划理论计算出目标指标权重,提出了一种基于灰靶理论的电网规划方案的评估模型。基于该灰靶模型,分析了规划方案指标参数的灵敏度,推导了相应的灵敏度区间计算公式。算例分析表明,所提出的评估模型有效,并能有效计算指标参数的灵敏度,为决策者控制灵敏度高的指标参数提供了参考依据。

For solving the problem of evaluation of alternative power network planning（EAPNP） and understanding the stableness of EAPNP, the grey target theory （GTT） and the sensitivity analysis are introduced to EAPNP. This paper develops a model of EAPNP based on GTT by defining a couple of bull＇s-eye mode and target edge mode to modify the formula of grey target transformation, and by using linear programming and quadratic programming theory to calculate the final target weight of indexs which take the preference information of each alternative into consideration. Based on the model,the paper analyzes the sensitivity of planning index parameter and deduces formula of interval of index parameters. Calculation example shows that the proposed model is valid and the sensitivity of index parameters can be effectively calculated which provides reference for decision-maker to control the sensitive indexs.