考虑拥堵传播效应的道路网络脆弱性评价

Road Network Vulnerability Assessment Considering Effect of Congestion Propagation

为有效识别道路网络中的脆弱单元,保证其稳定运行,需要建立城市道路网络脆弱性评价模型。以往脆弱性的研究中缺乏对城市道路网络高峰时段出现的拥堵效应,基于对这一道路网络现实交通状态的模拟,提出了路网单元的级联失效条件,运用用户平衡配流模型,结合交通规划软件EMME对道路拥堵状态进行模拟,并建立了综合考虑用户出行时间成本、能源和环境成本的脆弱性评价模型。运用此方法进行实例分析,结果表明:考虑拥堵传播效应的脆弱性评价精度大大提高;且道路通行能力提高,脆弱性下降,交通需求增加,脆弱性增大。考虑因素更为全面的脆弱性评价可有效帮助路网规划和交通管理部门采取相应措施。

To effectively identify the vulnerable units of road network and ensure the stable operation to maintain the normal operation of city life, urban road network vulnerability evaluation model is needed. The vulnerability of the former researches was lack of congestion effect during peak hours in urban road networks. Based on the simulation of the real road network traffic state, cascading failures of the link or node was presented. User equilibrium assignment model and traffic planning software EMME were exerted to simulate road congestion state. In addition, a road network vulnerability assessment model was put forward, which combined user travel time costs, energy costs and environmental costs. At last, the model was applied. The results indicate that the accuracy of vulnerability evaluation considering the effect of congestion propagation is greatly increased. The vulnerability decreases when road capacity improves, and increases when demand traffic improves. Vulnerability assessment considering more comprehensive factors can effectively help road network planning and traffic management departments to take corresponding measures.