要素禀赋变化与中国农业增长路径选择

Change of Factor Endowments and China Agricultural Growth Path Selection

生产要素的相对禀赋和积累状态将决定农业技术变革模式和增长路径选择。然而,随着"刘易斯拐点"的出现和人口红利的逐渐消失,我国农业发展所面临的要素禀赋结构正在发生着根本性变化,已逐步进入到一个劳动力成本快速上升的发展区间。那么,要素禀赋结构的变化会对农业生产带来什么实质性影响呢?论文利用1978-2012年农业内部行业层面成本收益数据,运用单要素生产率指标和二维空间相图增长分析法来考察农业的增长路径、技术进步偏向及其变化。研究结果表明:1我国农业技术变革存在明显的诱致性偏向,即随着要素禀赋的变化,特别是劳动力成本的上升,农业生产呈现出明显的节约劳动倾向和"资本深化"迹象;2我国农业增长路径可能正在经历着历史性的转型,正在突破传统的高度人口-土地压力下"内卷化陷阱",从以提高土地生产率为主的传统农业生产方式向以提高劳动生产率为主的现代农业生产方式转变;3由于农业内部不同行业之间存在地劳配比的结构特性,农业技术变革模式与增长路径也存在一定的行业差异。由于要素禀赋的变化,特别是劳动力成本的上升这一进程是大势所趋,具有不可逆性,因此,相应的制度设计与政策安排也必须就劳动生产率导向下农业如何进一步发展问题未雨绸缪,做出前瞻性规划,这可能包括"要素替代"、"诱致性技术进步"、"机械化"等,以把握农业发展的历史性契机。

The endowment of factors of production and its accumulation state will deternfine the technological change pattern and growth path selection of agriculture. However, with the emergence of the ＇ Lewis turning point＇ and the diminishment of demographic dividend, labor cost is rising rapidly and the factor endowment structure in China＇ s agricultural development is undergoing a fundamental change. Then, what impacts would such a change bring on China＇ s agricultural productiong Using the cost-benefit data of agricultural industry from 1978 to 2012, this paper analyzes the growth path and the biased technological change of agriculture based on the single factor productivity index and two-dimensional spatial growth phase diagram analysis. The main conclusions are as follows ： （1） Induced bias is an obvious feature of China＇ s agricultural technological change which means China＇ s agricultural production presents an evident tendency of ＇ labor saving＇ and ＇ capital deepening＇ due to the change of factor endowment, especially the rising of labor cost. （2） China＇ s agricultural growth path may be experiencing a historic transformation： it is changing from the traditional land productivity oriented development to the modern labor productivity oriented development by breaking through the traditional ＇ involution trap＇ which is the result of the high level population-land pressure. （3） Owing to the difference in land-labor ratio and the demand for machinery, the technological change pattern and growth path of agriculture differ among agricultural industries. Besides, the change of factor endowment, especially the rise of labor cost, is irreversible. Therefore, we should have the foresight to design the corresponding system and policies, which may include ＇ factor substitution＇, ＇ induced technological innovation＇, and ＇ mechanization＇ , etc. , to further develop agriculture under the labor productivity oriented growth path, thus grasping the historic opportunity for the development of agriculture.