基于LEAP-Power模型的电力产业碳减排政策情景研究

Study on the Carbon-reduction Policy Scenarios in Electric Power Industry Based on the LEAP-Power Model

电力产业碳排放具有典型的外部性特征，减排必需依靠政策的积极引导和约束。本文首先依托LEAP软件构建了LEAP-Power模型对中国电力产业节能减排政策进行模拟，该模型设置了四种减排政策情景：基准情景、节能政策情景、气候政策情景以及综合政策情景，在分别对四种情景下中国2010-2050年电力产业能源需求和碳排放量进行预测的基础上，对不同减排政策的实际效果进行了比较和评价。结论显示，根据碳减排效果从高到低对四种政策情景依次进行排序的结果是：综合政策情景〉节能政策情景〉气候政策情景〉基准情景，其中清洁能源替代燃煤发电、提高燃煤机组技术效率及实施CCS技术的相关政策减排效果最为明显，电力需求侧管理政策的减排潜力相对有限。

Carbon emission in electric power industry reveals typical externality. So, policy guide and restricts by the government are necessary for its reduction. Firstly, based on the LEAP software, this paper establishes a LEAP-Power model to simulate the energy saving and carbon reduction polices in the electric power industry of China. This model sets four kinds of carbon-reduction policy scenarios, which are baseline scenario, energy-saving scenario, climate scenario and comprehensive scenario. With the forecast of total amount of energy demand and carbon emission under each scenario from 2010 to 2050, the paper compares and evaluates the efficiency of each scenario. Sequencing the scenarios’ effectiveness from high to low shows comprehensive scenario〉energy-saving scenario〉climate scenario. Especially, the policies related to clean-energy as a great substitute for coal in electric power generation, technical efficiency improve-ment of coal-firing units and fulfillment of CCS technology have the most effectiveness. Policies in demand side management have very little potential in carbon reduction.