基于文字概率的前景构建方法

Prospect Building Method Based on Verbal Probability

针对不确定性决策中如何构建前景这一问题,在对方案结果可能集(识别框架)进行分组的基础上,专家按照相对比较判断原则给出文字概率推断,通过数字和文字概率之间的转化规则将文字概率矩阵转化为三角模糊数概率判断矩阵,据此构建了最优BPA函数确定模型求解出最优的BPA函数,然后采用Dempster组合规则和DSm P方法对所有专家的BPA函数信息进行融合和概率转换,从而完成了方案前景的构建,最后的模拟案例分析了本文方法的具体操作过程.

As for how to build prospects to uncertainty decision problem,on the basis of grouping all alternative’ s possible outcomes set （frame of discernment）,experts made verbal probability inference according to relative comparison judgment.Through transformation rules between the number and verbal probability,this paper con-verts verbal probability matrix to triangular fuzzy number probability judgment matrix.It thereafter constructs the optimal Basic Probability Assignment （BPA）function determining model,and thus,solves the optimal BPA function.It then employs the Dempster combination rule and the DSmP transformation method to fuse BPA func-tions from all experts and to transform the probabilities to build the project prospect.The concrete operation process of this method is analyzed through the final simulation case.