黄河干流水量分配的演变及多数据流模型分析

Evolution of water allocation scheme for the mainstream of Yellow River and multiple stream model analysis

黄河是我国北方的第一大河,也是我国水权制度建设的先驱。1987年由国务院颁布的《黄河可供水量分配方案》("八七"分水方案)是我国第一个全流域的水量分配方案,它将黄河干流580亿m3水资源量分配给沿黄11个省(自治区)以及河道生态。"八七"分水方案为沿黄各省区的经济发展限定了水资源边界,成为黄河流域水量统一调度的基础,奠定了黄河流域水资源管理工作的基石。本文围绕黄河干流水量分配问题,追溯了"八七"分水方案的历史,梳理了分水方案的主要时间节点和发展脉络。在此基础上,采用"多数据流模型"分析了水量分配方案的形成过程和效用发挥机理,总结了"八七"分水方案对其他流域水权制度建设和水资源管理体制改革的借鉴作用,并就水量分配方案的完善提出建议。结果表明,"八七"分水方案将扣除冲沙水量后的水资源可供水量在省区间分配,体现公平分配、兼顾效率的原则,具有很强的科学性和前瞻性。严峻的水资源短缺形势激发了对水量分配的强烈需求;合理的分配方案和可行的实施机制为水量分配提供必要途径;在长期反复的协商过程中,政府公正权威的行政决策成为分水方案形成的主要促成因素。"八七"分水方案的形成过程表明,只有当"问题流""政治流"和"政策流"事件耦合发生时,才能引发水资源管理体制的转变,促成黄河干流水量分配方案的有效落实和实施。

The Yellow River, the largest river in the North of China, is the first river to implement a water allocation scheme. The Yellow River water allocation scheme, or Scheme 1987 in short, was approved in 1987 by the State Council, which was the very first whole basin level water allocation scheme in China.It allocates a total volume of 58 billion m3 of water to the 11 provinces along the river and its ecosystem, and lays the foundation of integrated water regulation of the Yellow River. The authors have investigated the historical background for the establishment of Scheme 1987 and analyzed the processes and dynamics of the development of this scheme using a multiple stream model. Based on this, it drew some valuable experience and guidance from Scheme 1987 to the development of water right system and the reform of water resources management system for other basins. Recommendations for improvement of the scheme were put forward. It is found that Scheme 1987 is scientifically sound and visionary and it enables the Yellow River water resources to be allocated efficiently and fairly among all of the water demanding regions. Generally, severe shortageof water resources inspires a strong demand for water allocation, and a reasonable allocation scheme with a feasible implementation mechanism provide a necessary basis in the case of such severe shortage. During the long-term and repeating consultation process in drafting the allocation scheme, the impartial and authoritative decisions from government become a major contributing factor to the scheme formulation. The historical development of Scheme 1987 also reveals that only by coupling three independent streams, i.e. problem stream, political stream and policy stream, can the implementation of the Yellow River water allocation scheme be most effective.