蒙特卡洛模拟法在项目评估风险分析中的应用——以青岛海信房地产目标成本测算工具表为例被引量：2

Monte-Carlo Method for Risk Analysis in Project Evaluation:A Case Study of Tsingtao Hisense Real Estate Company's Target Cost Calculation Table

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摘要在房地产投资项目可行性研究中,选取正确合理的方法估算风险因素至关重要。概述了蒙特卡洛模拟法与敏感性分析的联系与区别,并以青岛海信房地产公司目标成本测算工具表为例,证明了蒙特卡洛模拟法在项目风险评估中具有较高的实践价值。 For the feasibility study of real estate investment projects, how to evaluate the risk factors reasonably and exactly is essential. This article summarized the connection and difference between the Monte-Carlo method and sensitivity analysis, and then we validated the practical significance of Monte-Carlo method with a case study of Hisense Real Estate Company＇ s target cost calculation table.

作者向为民张箭

机构地区重庆理工大学经济与贸易学院

出处《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》 CAS 2015年第7期48-52,共5页 Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

关键词蒙特卡洛模拟法项目评估财务风险 project evaluation financial risk Monte-Carlo method

分类号 F293.3 [经济管理—国民经济]

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