城市化水平与三次产业结构相关性分析

Analysis of Correlation Between Urbanization Level and Three Industrial Structure

利用1978—2012年的统计数据,依据城市化的动力机制,利用回归分析和灰色关联分析,证明我国产业结构调整对城市化进程具有长期的显著影响,产业结构的调整是城市化水平变化的Granger因,且在产业结构中,第三产业的发展与城市化水平的关联度高于第二产业。因此强调促进城市化进程应成为制定产业政策和结构调整的重要出发点,并有针对性地提出了政策建议。

According to the statistical data from 1978 to 2012, on the basis of the dynamical mecha- nism of urbanization, and using regression analysis and grey relational analysis, we proved that the adjustment of industrial structure in our country has long-term effect on the process of urbanization and the adjustment of industrial structure is the Granger cause of the change of the level of urbanization, and the association of the tertiary industry development and urbanization level degrees is higher than the second industry in the industrial structure. Therefore, it is important to emphasize the promotion of urbanization process as an important starting point for the adjustment of industrial policies and struc- ture. And targeted policy recommendations were put forward.