洪水风险认知研究综述与展望

A Review of Flood Risk Perceptions

中国是一个洪水多发国家,洪水灾害平均每年给中国造成约千亿元的直接经济损失。成功的洪水风险管理离不开公众的参与,了解公众对环境风险的认知是设计有效风险沟通策略的关键,也是促进公众认识提升与行为转变的重要环节。本研究回顾了公众对洪水风险的相关认知,系统梳理了风险认知研究范式、洪水风险认知的测量及其影响因素。现有研究表明,公众居住地的地理特征与洪水风险认知存在显著的相关关系:居住地距离洪水风险源越近,洪水风险认知越高;居住地相对洪水风险源海拔越高,洪水风险认知越低。女性、年龄较高的人群更关注洪水风险,而教育程度、收入水平与洪水风险认知则没有显著相关关系。受灾经历是影响洪水风险认知的重要因素,有过受灾经历的公众会有较高的洪水风险认知和较强的应对灾害的行为。公众对洪水风险管理的信任程度也将影响公众的洪水风险认知。本研究对洪水风险认知的测量指标和测量方法做了梳理和评述,并提出今后洪水风险认知研究可能拓展的方向,如探索公众洪水风险认知对行为改变的作用,以及对洪水风险管理的影响。

In China, flood hazards are common and cause huge financial losses every year. Public par- ticipation plays an important role in the management of flood risk. Public risk perceptions, effective risk communication are keys to understanding and improving public behaviors. Research on public percep- tions of flood risk was reviewed; research paradigms and factors were discussed. Previous studies have shown that there is a significant correlation between geographic features of residence and risk percep- tions： the closer people live to flood sources, the higher they perceive flood risks; the higher altitude people live to the flood sources, the lower they perceive flood risks. Woman and the elderly tend to over- estimate flood risks, education level and social economic status are not significantly related to flood risk perceptions. In addition, previous experience is an important factor of risk perceptions, for instance, people who had ever experienced flood damage have higher risk perceptions and better strategies facing flood risks. The extent to which that people believe in flood risks management also affects individual＇s risk perception. Further, measurements and paradigms in flood risk perceptions studies were also re- viewed. Future directions, such as exploring the role of people＇s flood risk perceptions in changing theirbehaviors and the influence of flood risk perceptions on flood risk management, were proposed.