应用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测上海市副溶血性弧菌引起的食源性疾病发病率

Forecasting of Foodborne Disease Caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai using Grey Model GM(1, 1)

[目的]建立灰色模型GM（1，1），预测上海市副溶血性弧菌引起的食源性疾病的发病率。[方法]利用2007-2010年上海市食源性疾病监测数据，运用Exce12010，建立GM（1，1）模型，进行精度及适用性检验，预测2011、2012年发病率并验证。[结果]GM（1，1）预测模型为积t＋1）=124．32e0．59t-47．14，关联度r1=0．614，后验差比值C=0．24，小误差概率P=1，发展系数-α=0．59，模型预测2011、2012年发病的平均相对误差分别为57．48％、3．90％。[结论]建立的GM（1，1）模型精度好，谨慎适用短期（2～3年）预测；预测上海市副溶血性弧菌引起的食源性疾病的发病率呈上升趋势。

[ Objective ] To forecast the incidence of tbodborne disease caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus （VP） in Shanghai by establishing grey model GM （1, 1）. [ Methods ] The Shanghai foodborne disease surveillance data in 2007-2010 were processed by Excel 2010 and used to build GM （1, 1） model. After tests of accuracy and applicability, the model was used to forecast the incidence rate of VP-related foodborne disease in 2011 and 2012 for verification. [ Results ] The GM（1, 1） prediction model established was X（t＋l）=124.32e0.59t-47.14, r1 （relativity） =0.614, C （posterior error ratio）=0.24, P （small error probability）=1, -α （development coefficient）=0.59. The average relative error of model forecast results versus actual data for 2011 and 2012 was 57.48% and 3.90% respectively. [ Conclusion ] The precision of the GM （1, 1） model warrants application with caution in shorttime （2-3 years） forecast. The predicted incidence rate of foodborne disease caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai is increased according to the established model.