干旱风险与水资源短缺风险关系辨析

Analysis of the relationship between the risk of water shortage and the risk of drought

从风险发生前、发生中、发生后3个方面探究干旱风险与水资源短缺风险的关系,分析表明在风险发生前干旱风险和水资源短缺风险存在着共同的致险因子——降水量和蒸发量,当降水量持续偏少或者蒸发量持续偏高时,两者可能同时发生,并且干旱风险有可能引起水资源短缺风险;在风险发生过程中干旱和水资源短缺是属于不同的现象;而在风险发生后2种风险在损失预估方面也有所不同,干旱风险侧重于农业损失,水资源短缺风险不仅对农业,对其他产业都带来损失,两者同时发生后存在着相互促进的作用,提升了风险发生后的等级程度.

The field of hydrology and water resources often shows complicated characteristics. Drought risk and water scarcity risk are all related water resources risks. While both forms are due to the lack of water, their root case, process and result are different. The two risks are not independent but are interrelated and can influence each other. This paper analyzed the relationship before, during and after the occurrence of the risk. It was found that drought risk and water scarcity risk have some common risk factors before risk, when the precipitation is low or evaporation is high, and they may occur at the same time. Drought and water scarcity are different phenomena during risk. But after the occurrence of risk, one phenomenon may reinforce the other, as a result enhancing the level of risk. The two kinds of risks show a strong relationship with each other.