中国农业现代化进程直接影响因素与空间溢出效应

Direct Influencing Factors for the Process of China's Agricultural Modernization and its Spatial Spillover Effects

本文以二元经济增长模型为基础推理出的命题假设为理论分析框架,应用动态空间面板数据模型考察了中国农业现代化进程的直接影响因素与空间溢出效应。实证分析结果表明,农业现代化进程具有时间上的积累效应和空间上的辐射带动作用;工业化在短期内对农业现代化有直接的正向影响;农业水利化和城市化在短期内对农业现代化产生正向的直接影响和空间溢出效应;农业科技投入和农村财政支出对农业现代化有促进作用;值得警惕的是在我国几乎尚未形成推动农业现代化进程的长效机制。在推动农业现代化发展的进程中,既要加强各地区农业发展政策之间的协调,又要加强农业区域规划的配套体系建设;不但关注短期效果,更要思考如何形成促进农业现代化实现的长效机制。

This paper takes the hypothesis derived from the growth model of dual economyas the theoretical analytical framework. Some dynamic spatial panel data models have been applied to study the direct influencing factors for the process of China's agricultural modernization and its spatial spillover effects. The results of empirical analysis show as follows: The agricultural modernization has cumulative effects over time and radiation effects over space. Industrialization has positive direct impacts on agricultural modernization in the short term. The irrigation of agriculture and urbanization has positive direct impacts and spatial spillover effects on agricultural modernization in the short term. Agricultural technological input and rural financial expenditure have positive effects on agricultural modernization. It is worth noting that the long-term mechanism,which will motivate the agricultural modernization,has not been formed in our country. The enlightenments of the empirical research and theoretical analysis are as follows: The coordination of agricultural development policies among different areas should be enhanced during the process of agricultural modernization. The construction of agricultural regional planning supporting system should be strengthened. Policy-makers should not only focus on the short-term effects,but also consider how to form the long-term mechanism,which will drive the agricultural modernization.