武汉城市圈土地利用变化系统仿真模拟与驱动力分析

SIMULATION OF LAND USE CHANGE AND ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES IN WUHAN URBAN AGGLOMERATION BASED ON A SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL

土地利用变化是全球环境变化与可持续研究的重要内容,驱动力研究是土地利用变化研究中的核心问题。现有土地利用变化驱动力研究多针对单一的城市区域展开,无法解释城市群地区,城市一体化战略指导下城市交互作用对土地利用变化的影响。运用系统动力学（SD）方法,综合考虑经济、人口、城市化、政策等主要人文因素,并将城市交互作用因素引入SD,以武汉城市圈为例,构建土地利用变化系统SD模型,运用1997-2006年的历史数据进行检验,并对武汉城市圈2010-2020年不同情景下的土地利用变化进行模拟。结果表明,建立的SD模型是有效的,两种情景下土地利用变化表现出差异性,说明城市交互作用是除经济、人口城市化等社会经济因素外,土地利用变化的又一重要影响因素。

Land use change is one of the main research subjects of global environmental change and sustainable development and driving force is the core issue of land use change. However, existing reseach on land use change is mainly focusd on a single administrative region, which is unable to explain the effect of interaction among cities on land use change in urban agglomeration led by city integration strategy. In line with the rational utilization of land, it is proposed that the interaction among cities should be considered as an effect of urban agglomeration land use change. As there has been little research to date on this issue, this paper introduces a system dynamic （SD） model which is established synthetically considering human driving forces such as population, economy, urbanization, policy, etc.. For assessing land use change led by city integration strategy in Wuhan urban agglomeration in which the interaction among cities is considered as one of driving forces. The applicability and reliability of the model was proved by the actual data of 1997--2006 from the Wuhan urban agglomeration, on the basis of it, the land use change under two different ＂what-if＂ scenarios controlled by the interaction between cities from 2010 to 2020 were simulated. The result suggested that the SD model has a certain applicability and reliability, and land use change under two different scenarios are obviously different, the speed of construction land use change in Wuhan urban agglomeration is accelerated from 2010 to 2020, but the tendency is different. It also indicated that led by ＂1＋ 8＂ city integration strategy and with the effect of interaction among cities, the speed of construction land use change in Wuhan, Huangshi, E＇zhou will be slowed down, and in other cities such as Xiantao, Tianmen, Qianjiang, the rate will increase rapidly, and this will bring the gap between cities in Wuhan urban agglomeration much closer. Not only the factors of population, economy,urbanization and policy have prominent driving effect on land use change in Wuhan urban agglomeration, interaction among cities also has good relationship with land use change. So we should pay much attention to interaction among cities, to strenghten the interaction strength between cities by improving the condition of transportation and information, aim to promote the Wuhan urban agglomeration the harmonious and sustainable development.