气候变暖背景下青南牧区牧业生产关键期变化特征及预估研究

Influence of climate warming on change characteristic of husbandry production critical period in Northeastern Qinghai during 1961- 2013

采用青南牧区9个地面气象站1961―2013年逐日气温资料,通过线性回归、双线性插值、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析等统计方法,分析了牧草生长季、青草期、牲畜抓膘期和掉膘期等牧业生产关键期的时空变化特征,预估了未来在典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs）情景下2015―2035年牧业生产关键期变化趋势。结果表明,1）1961―2013年,青南牧区牧草生长季、青草期以及牲畜抓膘期开始日提早、结束日推迟,持续日数显著延长,延长速率分别为2.5、4.8、4.6 d·10 a^-1,而牲畜掉膘期呈现出相反的变化趋势,平均缩短4.0 d·10 a^-1。2）近53年,青南牧区牧草生长季、青草期、牲畜抓膘期及牲畜掉膘期4个指标均发生了气候突变,突变时间在1997/1998年;其中牧草青草期存在8~12、16~18年的周期,牲畜抓膘期及掉膘期4~6、8~12、16~18年的振荡明显。3）在RCPs情景下,未来20年青南牧区牧草生长季、青草期、牲畜抓膘期平均分别延长11.5~21.5 d,牲畜掉膘期缩短15.7~18.1 d,将十分有利于青南牧区的牧业生产。

Based on daily temperature data collected from 9 meteorological stations in Southern Qinghai Pastoral areas from 1961 to 2013,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of animal husbandry critical period,such as growing season,green grass duration,fatten duration and fat-loss duration of livestock were analysis and the change trend of the future animal husbandry production critical period from 2015 to 2035 in RCPs（ Representative Concentration Pathways） scene were forecast using the methods of linear regression,morlet analysis and Mann-Kendall test. During these studied 53 years from 1961- 2013,the growing season,green grass duration and fatten duration extended with earlier start and later end which lead to significantly longer duration days with extend rate of 2.5,4. 8,4. 6 d·10a^- 1,respectively. However,fat-loss duration reversely shorten with the shorten rate of 4. 0 d ·10a^- 1. These four indices all had abrupt climate change which happened at 1997 /1998. Green grass duration had8 ~ 12 a and 16 ~ 18 a cycle and fatten duration and fat-loss duration fluctuated in 4 ~ 6 a,8 ~ 12 a,16 ~ 18 a.Under RCPs scene,it predicted that the growing season,green grass duration and fatten duration averagely extended the 11. 5 ~ 21. 5 d and fat-loss duration shorten 15. 7 ~ 18. 1 d in the next 20 years which will be very beneficial to the livestock production in Southern Qinghai Pastoral areas.