与中国东部天气气候相关的大气季节内振荡研究及业务应用

A REVIEW OF THE INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION ASSOCIATED WITH RAINFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA AND ITS OPERATIONAL APPLICATION

回顾了近年来国内外对大气季节内振荡(ISO)活动影响东亚地区,尤其是影响我国东部地区冬夏季降水变化的研究成果,重点阐述了夏季影响我国长江流域的ISO来源及影响路径,并对目前国际上基于热带大气季节内振荡活动开展的次季节-季节预测研究计划和业务应用以及我国热带大气季节内振荡的业务现状进行评述。

In this paper we review the recent progress in understanding the impacts of intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） on the winter/summer precipitation in the East Asian monsoon region. The primary origin of ISOs from tropics and mid-latitudes as well as their pathways are mainly presented for their influence on the weather and climate over Yangtze River Basin in China. As important potential sources of predictability of the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction, the scientific issues concerning ISO are the key international research objectives for seamless weather-to-climate predictions. The current status in operational applications of ISO in China is discussed. It will be a challenging task in the following years in understanding the mechanism of ISO, the interactions between the tropical and extratropical system on the intraseasonal timescale and improvement of the physical processes in dynamic models for better simulation and prediction of ISO.