时滞多变量离散灰色模型及其应用

Delay multi-variables discrete grey model and its application

针对多变量灰色模型存在驱动因素机制不明确和缺乏驱动项引入规则的问题.通过引入时滞项控制驱动因素,构造一种新的多变量离散灰色模型,并探讨模型参数求解方法.根据灰色扩维识别方法,探索驱动项选择和时滞参数测算方法,并给出模型建模预测步骤;最后,采用该模型解决我国农村水环境与农村区域发展的滞后效应测算、建模和预测问题,实例结果表明该模型不仅精度较高,而且模型含义更明确.

To overcome multivariable grey model＇s uncertainty of driving mechanism and the lack of introducing rule for drivers, a new multivariable discrete grey model is proposed, and model parameter calculation method is discussed by introducing delay control driving factors. Then, according to grey extended dimension identification method, driving term selection and time delay parameter estimation methods are explored, and modelling prediction steps are presented. Finally, the model is applied to analyzing, modelling and predicting the lag effect between rural water environment and regional rural development in China. The result shows that the model not only has higher precision, but also gains more specific implication.