摘要
利用最小二乘原则求得最佳平移步长,对原始数据进行平移变换,建立GM(1,1)模型对中国人口城镇化作出了分析,并对预测结果进行了误差检验。从实例可以看出,最佳平移变换方法简单容易实现,优化后的灰色模型精度更高,从而能对中国人口城镇化程度提供更长期的预测效果。
The best translation step was first obtained by using the least squares principle and the original data was trans- formed by translation transform method in the paper. Then we constructed the GM （ 1,1 ） model to analyze the problem of popula- tion urbanization in China, and the result of forecast error was analyzed. The results show that the grey model optimized by the best translation method is more accurate and reliable. It can carry on forecasting the population urbanization in long term.
出处
《安庆师范学院学报（自然科学版）》
2015年第3期35-37,41,共4页
Journal of Anqing Teachers College(Natural Science Edition)
基金
安徽高校省级科学研究项目(KJ2014A180)
安徽省自然科学基金青年项目(1508085QA14)
关键词
灰色理论
GM(1
1)模型
人口城镇化
平移变换
grey theory, GM（ 1,1 ）model, population urbanization, translation transformation
