碳排放视角下的区域间贸易模式:污染避难所与要素禀赋

China's Regional Trade Patterns under the Perspective of Carbon Emissions:Pollution Haven and Factor Endowment

本文基于投入产出模型,实证分析了碳排放视角下中国省际和四大地区层面的区域间贸易模式。结果表明,在典型年份中,绝大多数省份的国内贸易都表现为污染避难所模式或要素禀赋模式.甚至个别省份的国内贸易既是污染避难所模式又是要素禀赋模式;四大地区的国内贸易在整个研究期内主要表现为污染避难所模式,也有一些表现为要素禀赋模式。进一步地,一些省份或地区的国内贸易还可能在某一年份表现为污染避难所模式,但在另一年份表现为要素禀赋模式。由此可见,污染避难所假说和要素禀赋理论各自只能部分地解释中国的区域间贸易.但把两者结合起来就能够很好地解释中国的区域间贸易。当然。也有少数省份或地区的贸易在某些年份表现为其他模式。同时发现。当前中国的区域间贸易整体上不利于中国的碳减排。本文的发现意味着通过强化环境规制、加强区域间环境治理合作以及深化区域经济一体化.可以优化区域间贸易模式并促进中国的碳减排。

This paper empirically analyzes the inter-regional trade （IRT） patterns at the provincial level and 4-aggregated regional level in China under the perspective of carbon emissions by using the input-output model. The results indicate that most of the IRTs at the provincial level display as the pollution haven pattern （PHP） or factor endowment pattern （FEP） in typical years and some of them are even both the PHP and FEP. The IRTs at the 4-aggregated regional level mainly display as the PHP and some of them also display as the FEP. Further, the IRTs of some provinces or regions may display as the PHP in some year but display as the FEP in another year. Therefore, pollution haven hypothesis and factor endowment theory can only partly explain the IRTs in China, but they together can explain the IRTs in China very well. However, the IRTs of several provinces or regions display as other patterns in some year. At the same time, the [RT patterns as a whole are unhelpful for mitigating total carbon emissions in China at present time. The findings of this paper imply that it can optimize the inter-regional trade pattern and promote carbon mitigation in China by enforcing environmental regulation, tightening inter-regional collaboration on environmental governance and deepening regional economic integration.