海上丝绸之路背景下福建与东盟贸易潜力分析——基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

Analysis of Export Potential Between Fujian and ASEAN Under 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road——Based on Gravity Model

福建凭着资源优势、地理优势与东盟之间一直保持着密切的贸易往来,21世纪海上丝绸之路战略的提出为新形势下福建与东盟的贸易合作提供了新的推动力。基于贸易引力模型,以2005—2013年东盟十国的面板数据为样本,对福建出口贸易的影响因素以及贸易潜力进行分析。结果显示,贸易伙伴国之间的经济总量、消费者价格指数,以及两地之间的距离是影响福建对东盟国家出口贸易流量的主要因素,福建对东盟部分国家的贸易潜力已消耗殆尽,急需寻求新的合作模式,促进贸易增长。

With the advantages of resource and geographical position, Fujian has been closed to ASEAN on trade. The proposing in 21st- Century Maritime Silk Road giving new impetus to trade cooperation between Fujian and ASEAN under the new situation. Based on Gravity Model and using the panel data of 2005 -2013 years, export potential and its determinants are analyzed. The result shows that GDP, CPT and distance are main fac- tors of trade flows between Fujian and ASEAN. Export potential between Fujian and part of ASEAN countries has been exhausted, seeking a new mode of cooperation to promote trade growth is needed.