基于Panel Nerlove模型的我国牛肉供给反应实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Beef Supply Response in China Based on Panel Nerlove Model

从牛肉供给的角度出发,依据2000-2012年全国29个地区的数据,采用Panel Nerlove经典模型及扩展模型,对我国牛肉市场的供给反应进行分析。结果表明,牛肉的短期供给弹性为0.171,长期供给弹性为0.615,小于1,是缺乏弹性的畜产品;滞后一期牛肉产量、滞后二期牛肉产量、滞后一期牛肉价格、羊肉价格对牛肉产量都有显著的影响。剖析了我国牛肉价格缺乏弹性的原因,并且基于此结论,提出一些发展我国肉牛产业的建议:国家应该在贸易谈判过程中有意识的保护国内肉牛产业,重点要扶持能繁母牛的养殖,重视国内饲草资源的开发和利用。

From beef supply view point, this paper analyzed China＇s beef market supply response on the basis of Panel data from 2000-2012 in 29 regions, using classical Nerlove model and extended model. The results showed that the short-term elasticity of beef supply was 0.171 and long-term one was 0.615, both of them were less than 1, meaning inelastic supply. Besides, beef production of lagging one phase and two phase, beef price and mutton price of lagging one phase had significant impact on beef production. This paper mainly analyzed the reasons for inelastic price of beef supply; and based on this conclusion put forward suggestions for developing beef industry in China, including conciously protecting domestic beef industey during trading negotiations process, laying emphasis on supporting reproductive cow breeding, and development and utilization of domestic forage resources.