摘要
美国国内尽管对其霸权是否真正衰落仍存争议,但对以美国霸权衰落为基点制定中长期战略却有着重要共识。正是基于这一共识,美亚太"再平衡"战略提出后得到坚决执行。但深入考察可以发现,奥巴马政府进入第二任期后,亚太"再平衡"战略明显表现出动力不足态势,目前其对该战略的政策预期已经从一开始的全面推进降为相对保守的维持和等待。需要指出的是,这种动力不足态势很可能是短期的,中长期看,由于国家实力的复苏及动员方式的变化等,美国亚太"再平衡"战略可能重新获得充足动力。美国亚太"再平衡"战略动力的变动可能为中国提供一个短期的战略机会之窗,中国需要有效利用这一动力"换挡"期,设计全面和长远的大战略方案,推动中美"新型大国关系"的构建。
There is an emerging consensus among American policy and academic circles on making a long term strategy based on the assumption of U.S. hegemonic decline. The author argues that this strategy has been losing its momentum since the Obama's second term. It is important to note that this low tide may be a short-term phenomenon.With American economic recovery and further exploration of new ways of mobilization,the momentum will probably come back and an updated U.S. Asia-Pacific rebalance strategy will reemerge. The changes to the momentums of this U.S. strategy provides China a quite short strategic opportunity window that calls for designing a comprehensive and far-sight strategy.
出处
《现代国际关系》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第1期29-34,40,共7页
关键词
中美关系
亚太“再平衡”
动力
“新型大国关系”
Sino-U.S.relations,Asia-Pacific rebalance strategy,dynamics,new type of big power relations
