机构投资者持股、会计盈余持续性与分析师盈余预测信息含量——来自我国A股上市公司的经验证据

Institutional Investors Holding,Sustained Accounting Earnings and the Information Content of Analyst Earnings Forecast

本文将研究样本分为机构投资者持股比例较高和较低的两个样本,从盈余持续性的角度研究了这两个样本中分析师盈余预测的信息含量问题。研究发现,在将会计盈余分解为应计利润和现金流量后,两个样本下分析师盈余预测都能反映出盈余构成的持续性差异,但在机构投资者持股比例高的样本中分析师对盈余构成持续性的预测偏差更小。在将应计利润进一步分解为操控性和非操控性应计利润后,在机构投资者持股比例低的样本中则不能正确反映出这种差异,且分析师对盈余构成持续性的预测偏差更大。此文的研究表明,机构投资者持股能在一定程度上提高证券分析师盈余预测信息含量,这也为研究分析师基本面分析能力提供了一个视角。

From the perspective of earnings persistence,the paper divides the study sample into higher and lower part by the proportion of institutional investors' share-holding and examine the information content of analyst earnings forecast in the two sample.When earnings is divided into accruals and cash flow,analyst earnings forecast can reflect the different persistence of earnings components,the forecast error of earnings components persistence is lower under a higher proportion of institutional investors' share-holding.When earnings is divided into discretionary accruals and non—discretionary accruals,only in the sample of higher proportion of institutional investors' share-holding can correctly reflect the different persistence of earnings components,and the forecast error of earnings components persistence is larger.This study shows that,to a certain extent,institutional investors' share-holding can improve information content of analyst earnings forecast,which also provide a perspective to study the fundamental analysis ability of analyst.