北极通航对中国原油进口海运的影响——兼论航运碳税的作用

Impact of Arctic Route on China's Crude Oil Import Shipping and Influence of Shipping Carbon Tax

全球气候变暖使得北极航线逐渐开通并可能改变中国原油进口海运的航线结构,同时,征收碳税已是航运业大势所趋。本文建立经济性分析模型得出各原油进口来源地各条航线各型油轮运输的RFR,并分析征收碳税对中国原油进口海运经济性的影响;对目前和未来东北航线通行费率下通航期变化对中国原油进口海运经济性的影响进行动态分析;对影响RFR变化的燃油油价、通行费率、满载速度及租船费率进行灵敏度分析。研究发现,碳税税率达到200$/t时,北极圈航线的RFR仅高于中东、美西和北非红海航线;若通航期小于160天,北极航线的RFR低于北非地中海和西非航线;北极通航对中国原油进口海运将产生巨大的影响。

The Arctic sea route is gradually opened with the climate warm- ing, which may have a major impact on China＇ s crude oil import shipping routes. At the same time, it is an irresistible trend that taxes on carbon will be levied in the future. An economic analysis model is built to access the RFR of all oil import sea routes （including the Northern Sea Route）, then the paper ana- lyzes the effects of carbon tax on China＇ s crude oil shipping economy, and par- ticularly predicts the impacts of navigation period variability under the current NSR transit tariff rates. The sensitivity analysis is conducted on key parameters like bunker price, transit tariff, sailing speed and charter price. The results show that if the carbon tax rate is less than 200 USD/d, it is cheapest for China to import crude oil via the North Sea Route except from Middle East, West Ameri- ca and North Africa; if the navigation period of Arctic Route is less than 160 days, it is cheaper for China to import crude oil via the North Sea Route than from North and West Africa. The Arctic Route will have a significant impact on China＇ s oil import shipping.