玉米国际市场可依赖程度研究——基于四种粮食作物的对比分析

Dependability of International Maize Markets:A Comparative Analysis of Four Crops

本文基于1990-2013年的国际数据,将玉米、小麦、稻谷、大豆的生产、消费和贸易情况进行对比分析,构造出口产出弹性指标评价四个粮食品种国际市场和中国玉米进口来源国的可依赖程度。研究发现:玉米是世界上产量最高的粮食品种,2002年以来产量增速较快,但玉米贸易量增长慢于产量增长。玉米的消费主要用于饲料和工业加工,生物能源的发展及发展中国家肉食消费增加导致了玉米需求的增长。从出口产出弹性来看,中国玉米进口来源国中的巴西、保加利亚、加拿大、印度、老挝、俄罗斯、南非和乌克兰可依赖程度高。中国应当增加从上述国家进口玉米,有利于降低玉米进口风险,同时增加"一带一路"战略的区域合作内涵。

Based on international data from 1990 to 2013, this paper conducts a comparative analysis on the differences in production, consumption and trade of maize, wheat, rice and soybean, and constructs the ＂Export Output Elasticity＂ to evaluate the dependability of maize, wheat, rice and soybean markets. The conclusion suggests that at present maize is the world＇ s most productive grain, and maize production has increased quickly since 2002, while the trade volume of maize hasn＇ t increased as quickly to match its production. Maize is mainly used for fodder production and industrial procession, and the development of bio- energy and the increase of the meat consumption in developing countries contribute to the increase in maize demand. According to export output elasticity, in China＇ s maize import source countries, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, India, Laos, Russia, South Africa and Ukraine are of higher dependability. China should in- crease its maize import from these countries, which can reduce the risk in maize import and expand the connotation of regional cooperation in One Belt One Road initiative.