贸易便利化对中国经济影响分析

Analysis of Impacts of Trade Facilitation on China's Economy

贸易便利化成为国际贸易的谈判热点和发展趋势,本文采用全球贸易一般均衡模型(GTAP)分析了节约通关时间的贸易便利化对中国经济的影响。研究发现贸易便利化可显著促进中国经济增长和社会经济福利提高。在中贸易便利化方案下,中国实际GDP在2014年将提高0.27%,社会经济福利增长192亿美元;同时,中国贸易便利化可以显著提升其它国家的经济福利,其他国家的经济总福利提高62.09亿美元。随着贸易便利化水平的提高,经济增长和社会经济福利将进一步显著增长。

Trade facilitation has become a hot topic in trade negotiations and it is one of the most important strategies to promote trade. By adopting the global general equilibrium model of GTAP, the study analyzes economic impacts of the reduction of time required for the customs clearance on China＇ s economy. The results indicate that trade facilitation would promote China＇ s economic growth and economic welfare significantly. Under the medium scenario of trade facilitation, China＇ s real GDP will rise remarkably by 0.27%, with economic welfare increasing 19.2 billion US dollars. Meanwhile, the economic welfare of other countries will also gain notably and their total economic welfare will increase by 6.2 billion US dollars.