外商直接投资(FDI)与国际收支效应变化新趋势

FDI and the New Trend of China's Balance of International Payments

本文采用协整模型研究外商直接投资(FDI)的国际收支效应,分析表明金融危机后我国FDI与国际收支变化出现了新的变化趋势。FDI流入将导致我国的资本与金融项目余额的增加,又通过进出口贸易、投资收益汇出等渠道间接影响我国的经常项目余额,最终导致外汇储备余额乃至国际收支余额的变化。因此,必须格外关注FDI引入流动的变化和投资收益的汇出增长问题,以及由此引起的国际收支平衡问题。为此本文提出了相应的建议及对策。

Using the empirical analysis technology, we study the impact of FDI on China's balance of international payments since the financial crisis. The results show that FDI and the change of China's international payments after the financial crisis showed a new trend. In the long run, continuing FDIwill increase capital and financial account surplus, and indirectly influence current-account surplus. As a result, it will lead to the structural change of foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, the change of FDI and profits remitted growth of FDI should be heeded. If profit repatriation of FDI is more than trade surplus in several years' time, currentaccount will produce a deficit. If net foreign capital inflows is lower than year's pay of foreign debt, China's foreign exchange reserves will shrink and is bound to affect its international balance of payments. As a result, it will bring new risks and a series of related problems. Therefore, Suggestions and countermeasures are offered in this paper.