基于条件分布拟合的风电场功率等值研究

Equivalence Method of Wind Farm Power Based on Conditional Distribution

风电场中通常会含有不同参数、不同型号甚至不同结构的风电机组,建立准确的风电场模型是风电接入系统相关研究的基础,选取江苏某风电场中地理位置相邻的九台机组进行数据的实际记录,分析得出四个季度的风速概率分布曲线近似服从Weibull分布的结论。对于多台风电机组的风速——功率特性曲线的修正,考虑到传统最小二乘法的误差较大,提出了一种基于条件分布的概率分布模型。最后,根据实测数据,采用蒙特卡罗方法绘制出风电机组的一条风速—功率曲线带,为大建模提供了新思路。

Accurate model of the wind farm is the basis for the analysis of wind power integrating grid. In general there are different types of wind turbine generation units with different parameters and structures in a wind farm. Ac- cording to the data collected from nine wind turbine generation units located together in a wind farm of Jiangsu, it can be concluded that the wind speed probability distribution curves of four quarters obey Weibull distribution approxi- mately. Considering that the least squares may lead to greater error, a model of probability distribution based on con- ditional distribution is proposed, in order to promote the accuracy of wind - power curve. It shows that the generator output obeys lognormal distribution in a certain wind speed. Finally, a wind - power curve band is proposed by the way of Monte - Carlo method, according to experiment data.