钓鱼岛事件的尺度政治与言论分析

Analysis of the Diaoyu Islands Dispute by the Method of Politics of Scale and Text Analysis

2012年日本"购岛"使钓鱼岛争端再度回温,如何在"和平与发展"的时代主题下妥善解决这一争端成为至关重要的问题。本文运用尺度政治分析的一般框架,对钓鱼岛争端进行尺度政治分析探究,并结合对中方外交部关于钓鱼岛事件的发言的词频分析了解中方对日的真实政策内涵。分析认为,在争端处理中,中方的尺度转换方式更为成功:在事件前期,中方作为弱势方通过"表达"的方式引导舆论,获得了国内民众这一第三方的强力支持,将事件尺度进行了上推;在事件后期,日方试图寻求美国、东盟、舆论等第三方的支持,然而第三方国家反而对尺度进行了下推。通过对中方真实政策的分析,认为中方期望以和平的外交谈判方式解决,但在外交战方面不会放松警惕。

Since the “purchase”in 2012, the Diaoyu Islands dispute heated up again, how to solve this dispute properly under the themes of the times-“Peace and Development”has become a crucial problem. This paper analyzed this dispute through the general framework of the politics of scale. After that, this paper trying to show the real policy against Japan on the Diaoyu Islands dispute by making word frequency analysis of the statements of the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The analysis shows that the Chinese government has made a more successful scale jumping: At the early stage, the Chinese government guided the public opinion through representation as the weak side, and won the support from the Chinese people to upscale the dispute; at the late stage, al-though the Japanese government was trying to seek support from America, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and the public opinion, the third party didn’t help the Japanese government get back the initiative. The results of the analysis of the real policy showed that the will of peaceful diplomatic negotiations is obvious while the Chinese government will never drop their guard on the diplomatic war.