长江三角洲物流业发展的时空演变及影响因素

The Spatial-temporal Evolution and its Influence Factors of Logistics Development in Yangtze River Delta

运用熵权TOPSIS 法测算了2002、2010 年长江三角洲16 市的物流业发展水平,结果显示近10 年来长江三角洲物流发展水平有了显著的提升,但城市之间发展不平衡,差距有所扩大.上海是长江三角洲物流业发展的龙头,杭州和南京为两翼,对长江三角洲物流发展形成强大的辐射作用.长江三角洲南翼的舟山、宁波物流发展迅速,影响不断扩大.本文对长江三角洲物流发展进行空间自相关分析,发现2002 年～2010 年长江三角洲物流业的空间分布呈现显著的空间集聚性.最后采用岭回归分析法,探讨物流业发展时空演变的影响因素,分析表明经济增长是物流需求和供给的基础,可以带动物流需求,对物流发展的影响十分显著;产业结构变化与物流发展水平呈显著正相关,影响程度增强;固定资产投资对物流业的发展也有显著的推动作用,但作用程度在下降;消费因素和对外开放因素对物流业发展也有着显著的影响.

This paper uses entropy-weighting TOPSIS method to evaluate the lo-gistics development level of 16 cities in Yangtze River delta from the year of 2002 to 2010. The result shows the overall logistics development level of the Yangtze River Delta has risen greatly,but the development between cities is enlarging. Shanghai is the core,and Hangzhou and Nanjing being the two wings, thus forming a strong radiation effect on the development of logistics in Yangtze River delta. Zhoushan and Ningbo,two cities on the south wing of the Yangtze River Delta,have developed rapidly in logistics industry and expanded their influence. Then, the authors make spatial autocorrelation analysis on logistics development of the Yangtze River Delta, and find that 16 city’s lo-gistics development has a significant spatial agglomeration from 2002 to 2010. Lastly,the authors use the ridge regression analysis to investigate the fac-tors affecting the temporal evolution of the logistics industry. It shows that 1) economic growth is the basis of logistics demand and supply; 2) there is a significant positive correlation between the change of industrial structure and the level of logistics development,and the extent of influence enlarges;3) fixed asset investment also has a significant role on the development of the logistics industry,but the extent is on the decline; 4) consumption factor and the opening to the outside world also offect the development of logistics industry.