中国煤层气产业发展影响因素分析

An Analysis of Factors Constraining Development of China′s Coalbed Methane Industry

我国煤层气产业的发展现状差强人意。在基于德尔菲法收集影响煤层气产业发展指标变量的基础上,利用主成分分析、因子分析技术对中国煤层气产业发展影响因素予以分析。首先确定29个影响煤层气产业发展的指标变量,并归结为4个因子——"人力资本"、"企业实力"、"行业环境"、"互联网+"基础。结果表明,政府专项R&D经费支出、企业R&D经费支出、煤层气开发产学研一体化程度的弱化,导致煤层气开发技术专利、煤层气勘探开发技术体系、煤层气开发工艺标准体系的缺失,造成煤层气产业链分工协作程度的虚无;遇有国际油气价格的影响,煤层气开发市场主体则失去竞争资本实力。鉴于此,建议我国煤层气产业应基础科学先行,奠定煤层气产业发展基础;企业创新,完善煤层气产业技术体系;壮大煤层气企业实力,积聚产业发展引力;打造有利于煤层气产业发展的行业环境。

The development of China′s coalbed methane industry is barely satisfactory.Based on the variables of indices affecting how well the coalbed methane industry has developed,which were collected using the Delphi method,researchers analyzed the factors affecting the development of the Chinese coalbed methane in-dustry using principal component analysis and factor analysis techniques.They first determined 29 variables of indices that affect the development of the coalbed methane industry and narrowed them down to four factorshuman capital,corporate strength,industry environment and Internet ＋ base.Analysis results show that the declines in governments′ special RD expenditure,corporate RD expenditure and industry-university-researcher cooperation in the field of coalbed methane development have led to the absence of patented coalbed methane development technologies,coalbed methane exploration and development technology systems and coalbed methane development technical standard systems and hollowing of coordination between various links of the coalbed methane industrial chain.Once international oil and gas prices fluctuate,market players developing coalbed methane will be short of capital and ability to compete in the market.For these reasons,China should place a high value on basic science to lay the groundwork for further development of the coalbed methane industry.Enterprises should be encouraged to innovate and improve technical systems for the coalbed methane industry.Efforts should be made to enhance the strength of coalbed methane developers and to in-crease the attractiveness of the coalbed methane industry.The country should also create a favorable environ-ment for the growth of the coalbed methane industry.