新型工业化与新型城镇化耦合协调发展的机理与测度分析——以新疆为例

The Mechanism and Measurement Analysis of the Coupling Coordinated Development of New Industrialization and New Urbanization: Case Study of Xinjiang

本文在阐释新型工业化与新型城镇化耦合协调发展的内在机理的基础上,构建了两者协调发展评价指标体系,测算了新疆2000—2012年新型工业化与城镇化综合发展水平。结果表明:新疆新型城镇化发展水平始终超前于工业化且两者都不高,但基本上都呈上升趋势;新型工业化与城镇化存在长期协整关系,新型城镇化发展水平对工业化弹性系数为0.9991,且两者互为格兰杰因果关系;2000—2005年的高耦合度是低发展水平的耦合度,协调性较低,2005—2012年两者耦合协调性过渡到中级协调状态,并逐年缓慢递增。在未来十几年内,新疆新型工业化和城镇化的耦合协调度仍将保持稳步提升的趋势,并将在2030年左右实现优质协调发展。

This paper firstly explained the inner mechanism of the coupling coordinated development of new industrialization and new urbanization, and their coordinated development evaluation index system was built, then calculated their comprehensive development level from 2000 to 2012 in Xinjiang. The result shows the new urbanization＇s development level is always ahead of new industrialization and the two were both low, but basically increasing. The co-integration analysis shows they had a long-term co-integration relationship, and the elastic coefficient for new urbanization to new industrialization is 0. 9991. Moreover, they had mutual Grainger causality. The coupling coordination degree model shows they had high coupling degree in the low development level in 2000--2005, but intermediate coordination state in 2005--2012, and slowly increased yearly. Finally, the auto correlation method shows Xinjiang＇s coupling degree of new industrialization and new urbanization would continue to maintain a steady increase trend in the next ten years, and would achieve high quality coordinated development in 2030.