基于经济增加值波动性分析的石油投资项目评价模型

Evaluation Model for Petroleum Investment Project Based on EVA Volatility Analysis

现代石油市场经营环境的竞争性和风险性日益增强,要求企业在保值增值的同时,注重风险导向的投资决策。基于企业战略导向投资决策的基本要求,增加EVA(经济增加值)作为投资评价的核心指标,进而将实物期权分析方法与基于EVA的投资决策进行有机整合。通过对模型的实证分析表明,该模型不仅有效衡量战略导向下未来现金流的创值情况,而且解决基于未来现金流波动的管理柔性问题,综合反映信息价值和灵活性价值,实现全过程决策分析与控制,对于石油企业优化决策和提升企业价值具有重要的意义。

With the growing competition and accompanying risk in operating environment of modern oil market, companies are required to focus on risk-oriented investment decisions while maintaining value creation. Based on the basic requirement of enterprise strategic decision-making, EVA as a core index is added into the investment evaluation. On this basis, EVA-based decision making is organically integrated with real option analysis method. Furthermore, empirical analysis of the model shows that this model not only measures strategic oriented value creation situation of future cash flows, but also effectively solves management flexibility concerning variable volatility, reflecting both value of information and value of flexibility. As a result, investment decision analysis during the whole process is achieved, which is of great significance for oil companies to optimize decision-making and enhance enterprise value in the long run.