大通湖中华绒螯蟹(Eriocheir sinensis)自然生产潜力估算模型探讨

THE STUDY OF NATURAL POTENTIAL PRODUCTIVITY ESTIMATE MODEL OF CHINESE MITTEN CRAB ERIOCHEIR SINENSIS IN DATONG LAKE

人放天养的中华绒螯蟹(Eriocheir sinensis)质量好、个体大、耐运输、肉质鲜美,是优质高档蟹的代表,但产量严重不足。建立一套湖泊中华绒螯蟹自然生产潜力估算的模型来估算湖泊中华绒螯蟹自然生产潜力,确定放养量,以达到湖泊中华绒螯蟹稳产已迫在眉睫。本文根据近20年来作者对湖泊中华绒螯蟹放养的经验,结合灰估理论,提出蟹自然生产潜力:W=[B1K1C1/R1+B2K2C2/R2]·(B1+B2)2/B12+B2和蟹种放养量:W0=P0[B1K1C1/R1+B2K2C2/R2]·U/P估算模型,并与生产实践进行求证。其结果与生产实践存在较好的一致性。其估算结果可作为指导湖泊中华绒螯蟹生产的依据。

Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis belongs to the high-grade crab varieties, which is of good quality, big size, convenient transport, and good taste, but a serious shortage of production. It is very important to establish a model for estimating the natural production potential of E. sinensis in lake, confirming the stocking rate, and stabilizing E. sinensis production. This paper based on author＇s experiment about stocking E. sinensis in Datong Lake, Hunan Province for twenty years. Combining grey forecast theory, we presents two estimate model： the crab＇s natural potential productivity：W=[B1K1C1/R1＋B2K2C2/R2]·（B1＋B2）2/B12＋B2,and crab species volume：W0=P0[B1K1C1/R1＋B2K2C2/R2]·U/P.Then seek confirmation in the production practice. The result is in accordance with the practice. The estimated results can be taken as the direction for guiding E. sinensis production.