埃博拉病情的发展预测和最优药物运送系统的探究（英文）

Prediction of the development of the Ebola and the research on the optimal drug delivery system

目的研究埃博拉出血热的病情发展规律,提出可行的药物配送系统方案。方法根据2015年美国大学生数学建模竞赛A题的题目—消除埃博拉,建立SIR流行病模型预测该疾病的发展。根据2015年2月6日WHO的非洲各地区患病情况的数据,在疫区地图上选取了36个有感染者的地区并将其坐标位置标记出来,通过基于模拟退火的TSP(Traveling Sales Man Problem)算法研究药物配送系统。通过分析来自2015年2月6日WHO的非洲各地区患病情况的数据,建立以上两个模型在Matlab 7.0中运行,从而寻找一条花费最少运输路径最短的最优路径。结果 SIR传染病模型可以表示感染者的数目随着时间的关系,显示感染者与易感人群之间的数量变化关系;还可以分别预测感染者与易感者的数量变化趋势。根据基于模拟退火算法的TSP模型,在药物配送系统中可以找到一条花费最少、运输路径最短的最优路径,最优路径的最短距离为2 565.321 km,弗里敦(塞拉利昂的首都)和凯鲁阿内(位于几内亚)是物流分配中心,根据药物配送系统的制定规则,其他的地区将分别从这两个城市开始一个接一个有序地收到药品。结论隔离是阻止埃博拉病毒传播最有效的措施。只有将病人隔离和最短的药物运送路径结合起来才能有效地预防埃博拉疫情。

Objective To simulate the Ebola Epidemic＇ s law and propose the program of the medicine delivery system.Methods All data of Ebola epidemic in Africa were from WHO reported on February 6,2015.Based on the topic of the Mathematical Contest in Modeling（MCM） contest problems-eradicating Ebola,this paper established the SIR epidemic model to predict the epidemic development of Ebola.As to the medicine delivery system,36 infective districts were chosen and marked on the map.The method of the problem of traveling salesman problem（TSP） based on simulated annealing （SA） was used to solve the delivery system.The two models were run by Matlab 7.0.Results The established SIR model illustrated the relationship between infective （susceptible） numbers and days,and the relationship between infective and susceptible numbers.The model also made a prediction to the future number of the infective and susceptible people.This research obtained the shortest and most efficient path.The shortest distance was 2 565.321 km.Based on the search,a delivery network was built,and Freetown and Kerouane were set as the logistics distribution centers.According to the delivery system,other locations received the medicine one by one in sequence.Conclusion The isolation may be an effective measure of preventing the spread of disease.Only isolation combined with the shortest route of delivering drugs can prevent the Ebola Epidemic efficiently.